Indicators

Nonstop news, surging amounts of data... Too much information is as unhelpful as it is useless. W&P separates the noteworthy from the noisy. Sometimes very compactly. For example, we developed a set of telling economic indicators to illuminate some dynamics that shape the economy. We present two of them here.


W&P GDP Growth Stat for China

W&P GDP Growth Stat for China
Source: Refinitiv, Wellershoff & Partners

China's figures show what the global threat is

Zurich, March 20, 2020

Unusual figures are reaching us from China. Retail sales in January and February were down more than 20% year-on-year. This is the first negative figure since the start of the statistics. For certain industrial sectors the figures are even more dramatic. Cement production, for example, is currently almost 30% down, while automobile production actually fell by almost half. 
 
Based on these sector data, we at Wellershoff & Partners have been compiling alternative GDP statistics for China for some time now, which give a more realistic picture of the actual economic dynamics than the glossed over official figures. We have now supplemented these statistics with a forecast based on existing sector data and leading indicators. For the first quarter we expect quarterly growth of minus 12% on an annualised basis, which corresponds to growth of 1% year-on-year (see chart). It is therefore likely that China will experience its first negative quarterly growth in the current quarter since the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution under Mao Zedong.
 
The unprecedented slump in China's economic output gives a foretaste of what is threatening many other economies in the coming weeks. The situation could get even worse in other economies. In the first weeks of the year, China was still able to benefit from the fact that the global economy grew robustly. This is no longer the case. The economies are currently caught in the perfect storm. A collapse in global demand, disrupted supply and production chains, a partially stalled domestic sector, unsettled consumers, a lack of tourists, and increasingly illiquid companies: Not only does a recession seem inevitable... We can hardly imagine that this will not lead to systemic problems - despite or even because of all the measures taken by central banks and governments.

Please contact us for monthly updates on the W&P GDP Growth Stat for China and further research and insights based on it. 

Contact

Dr. Adriel Jost
+41 44 256 10 32
adriel.jost@wellershoff.ch


W&P Economic Indicators

W&P Economic Indicators
Source: European Commission, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners

The W&P Economic Indicators : a safe bet

Which regions currently affect global economic sentiment the most? How confident are French consumers and where does the Mexican export sector stand? Investigating sentiments is one of the most important branches of modern cyclic analysis. Be it the export, construction or industrial sector, we always have an informative indicator at the ready.

Our offering extends over a whole range of leading indicators including more than 30 economies and regions. We are pleased to offer you access to our economic indicators or compute tailor-made indicators, for example, according to the relative importance of your own sales markets.

Contact

Dr. Adriel Jost
+41 44 256 10 32
adriel.jost@wellershoff.ch