Indicators

Nonstop news, surging amounts of data... Too much information is as unhelpful as it is useless. W&P separates the noteworthy from the noisy. Sometimes very compactly. For example, we developed a set of telling economic indicators to illuminate some dynamics that shape the economy. We present two of them here.


W&P GDP Growth Stat for China

W&P GDP Growth Stat for China
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners

Chinese economy keeps weakening slightly

Zurich, October 12, 2018

According to the W&P GDP Growth Stat for China, which is based on bottom-up, sector-specific data, the Chinese economy grew by 6.2 percent YoY in the third quarter of 2018.

As such, it seems to have lost some minor momentum again. Chinese growth now lies marginally above trend. Should the figures released by Chinese authorities next week not also indicate a slight decrease, the gap between our alternative estimate and official data will increase.  

Currently, industrial production figures are at disappointing levels, though it is difficult to assess the impact which the trade war with the US might have had on this metric. Compared to this, consumers and construction are both doing fairly well. It is clear that the Chinese economy now faces the consequences of lower credit supply and increased interest rates. However, the recent reduction of the minimum reserve demanded by the People's Bank of China should stimulate credit growth and construction activity.

Doubts about the reliability of the official GDP statistics among investors and other China-watchers are widespread and have increased in recent years. In response, the W&P GDP Growth Stat for China offers an alternative statistical indicator to capture China’s GDP performance. Please contact us for monthly updates on the W&P GDP Growth Stat for China and further research and insights based on it. Details and background information are to be found in the Critical Perspectives attached below.

Contact

Dr. Adriel Jost
+41 44 256 10 32
adriel.jost@wellershoff.ch


W&P Economic Climate Indicators

W&P Economic Climate Indicators
Source: European Commission, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners

The W&P Economic Climate Indicators: a safe bet

Which regions currently affect global economic sentiment the most? How confident are French consumers and where does Mexican economic climate stand? Investigating sentiments is one of the most important branches of modern cyclic analysis. Be it the export, construction or industrial sector, we always have an informative indicator at the ready.

Our offering extends over a whole range of leading indicators including more than 30 economies and regions. We are pleased to offer you access to our economic indicators or compute tailor-made indicators, for example, according to the relative importance of your own sales markets.

Contact

Dr. Adriel Jost
+41 44 256 10 32
adriel.jost@wellershoff.ch