World Growth Trends Revisited
Abstract
The contours and the underlying forces shaping the global economy are rapidly changing. After a decade that posted the strongest growth ever recorded, we have entered a period of significantly lower trend growth. Asia will continue to gain but at a slower pace than many expect. Overlooked in all the recent fiscal tumult, but starkly revealed here in our updated proprietary growth model, productivity increases in the US, China and India have disappointed. In sum, the probability of recession in the coming years has clearly increased.
Klaus Wellershoff